Your most dependable (and presumably favorite) theater “critic” is back in action this year with some predictions for the 2025 Tony Awards! Sure, he failed to see a good chunk of the major plays and has frantically tried to catch up over the last several weeks, and yes, he did kind of forget/neglect to do nomination predictions, but he’s definitely here and vaguely informed. He has also read a lot of real outlets’ predictions (after doing a first pass himself) to see how rebellious his picks appear to be. And yes, he maybe adjusted some of his play predictions based on the opinions of people who, you know, actually saw the plays.
But we’re here, and I have predictions, because it adds some stakes and it was fun last year. I’ll provide brief commentary on each pick when I have anything to add. The general theme is that some of these categories are loaded with excellent performances, so I think it’s going to be a hard year for a few of the acting awards. Oh, and if you want to see the list of nominees, you can find that here. Now let’s get to it!
The Predictions
Best Play – Purpose
- You win the Pulitzer Prize and I feel like that gives you a pretty good chance of winning Best Play.
Best Musical – Maybe Happy Ending
- Maybe Happy Ending made me feel more feelings more strongly than maybe any show I can remember. So I have to go with that and say that wins in this strong category.
Best Book of a Musical – Will Aronson and Hue Park for Maybe Happy Ending.
- I won’t predict them for everything I promise. But the book is why it’s so good!!
Best Original Score – David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna for Dead Outlaw
- This is one where research and finally seeing Dead Outlaw last week changed my mind. This score is a blast and sort of defines the whole show. I originally had Operation Mincemeat, which I think has a very effective score. This also ends up being my sole prediction of a win for Dead Outlaw, and I like the idea of it getting on the board somewhere.
Best Revival of a Play – Yellow Face
- I loved this production and that’s the entirety of my logic.
Best Revival of a Musical – Sunset Blvd.
- I think it’s the best overall production on this list and I think that’s what the category is for.
Leading Actor in a Play – Cole Escola for Oh, Mary!
- They have to win, right?
Leading Actress in a Play – Sarah Snook for The Picture of Dorian Gray
Leading Actor in a Musical – Darren Criss for Maybe Happy Ending
- Stacked category. Can Groff win two years in a row?? Will Jeremy Jordan finally win a Tony? But also Daren Criss, but also Andrew Durand, but also Tom Francis, I have no idea. It’s stacked.
Leading Actress in a Musical – Nicole Scherzinger for Sunset Blvd.
- Ugh, stacked again. I think it’s Nicole or Audra, but in slower years any of them could have won in my opinion.
Featured Actor in a Play – Conrad Ricamora for Oh, Mary!
- I don’t know why his portrayal as Mary’s Husband (as his role is listed in the program) is so iconic, but it really is.
Featured Actress in a Play – Kara Young for Purpose
- I haven’t seen Purpose yet, but I wouldn’t bet against Kara Young.
Featured Actor in a Musical – Jak Malone for Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical
- To me, Malone deserves the Tony for one song that broke my heart. I think everyone else in this category also gave great performances, so I won’t be mad however it goes. Brooks Ashmanskas, in particular, is basically carrying Smash the whole show, and I was surprised his role didn’t count as a lead.
Featured Actress in a Musical – Natalie Venetia for Buena Vista Social Club
- This is a category where I changed my mind after reading some of the critic predictions. I had Joy Woods originally, and the theater experts of the world seem fairly convinced it will not be her (although I’m sure she will win many more in the future).
Scenic Design of a Play – Miriam Buether and 59 for Stranger Things: The First Shadow
- I think this show is in a different league than the other ones in this category. 59 is the Video Designer, and including set and video together here is just too much. Maybe a dark horse is The Picture of Dorian Gray, which I’ve heard has really innovative video design (which is being grouped into this category for that show too). And now Stranger Things can add “Tony Award winning” into its relentless barrage of social media marketing!
Scenic Design of a Musical – Dane Laffrey and George Reeve for Maybe Happy Ending
- Another happy intersection of scenic and video design. Few scenic designs define a show as much as that of Maybe Happy Ending. I could also see Derek McLane winning for the insanity that is Death Becomes Her.
Costume Design of a Play – Holly Pierson for Oh, Mary!
Costume Design of a Musical – Paul Tazewell for Death Becomes Her
- In the world of my predicted winners, Death Becomes Her is just missing out in a lot of other categories, so maybe this is where the legendary (and Oscar-winning for Wicked) Paul Tazewell brings that show some sort of win.
Lighting Design of a Play – Jon Clark for Stranger Things: The First Shadow
- Lighting Stranger Things felt more like lighting a magic show than lighting a real play. It was very effective, but the lighting itself wasn’t particularly impressive for me. Having got all of that hedging aside, I had a hard time finding anyone on the internet who had seen all the nominees and thought anything else would win.
Lighting Design of a Musical – Jack Knowles for Sunset Blvd.
- I’ve seen all the nominees and that doesn’t seem to be helping me land anywhere decisive in this category. I could make a case for each of them. Actually, here is the case for each of them:
- Jack Knowles for Sunset Blvd. – created impact despite being mostly constrained to a black and white aesthetic and no overhead lighting positions
- Tyler Micoleau for Buena Vista Social Club – beautiful throughout, and excellent transitions between times and places, all with a unit set
- Ben Stanton for Maybe Happy Ending – ceilings, boxes, monstrous black video walls, etc. A lot of obstacles and you can’t tell
- Scott Zielinski and Ruey Horng Sun for Floyd Collins – the vibe is “bleak and beautiful.” Stunning vignettes for days, but not much else going on. Atypical design for Broadway these days, lighting a huge space with limited moving lights
- Justin Townsend for Death Becomes Her – the scale of this design is impressive, and to me there’s a signature Townsend moment in Act 2 with stunning beam looks timed precisely to the music (reminds me of the White Stripes interlude during “Backstage Romance” in Moulin Rouge, if you want to know why I call that a signature Townsend moment)
Sound Design of a Play – Paul Arditti for Stranger Things: The First Shadow
- Fine, I’ll predict Stranger Things wins lighting, sound, and scenic design. It’s certainly the loudest!
Sound Design of a Musical – Jonathan Deans for Buena Vista Social Club
- The challenge of a huge band onstage is immense, and I found this design super impressive (this could also be an argument for Just In Time winning). For what it’s worth, I didn’t get a fair shot at Floyd Collins, since the night I saw it in previews there were maybe a dozen egregious mixing mistakes.
Direction of a Play – Kip Williams for The Picture of Dorian Gray
- My research shows this one to be a hot take, but we’ll find out!
Direction of a Musical – Michael Arden for Maybe Happy Ending
- Arden is a genius and I think this production hits so hard because of him. This also means I’ve aligned my Direction of a Musical and Best Musical picks, which I correctly predicted last year for The Outsiders.
Best Choreography – Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck for Buena Vista Social Club
- I’m no dance expert, but something really spoke to me about the movement in this show, and how it aligned with the spirit of the music. And Justin Peck is a known choreographic genius, so that helps me feel more confident in the pick.
Best Orchestrations – Marco Paguia for Buena Vista Social Club
- I feel like the orchestrations are actually a key part of the show here, and therefore I think that elevates Paguia’s work over a lot of great contenders.
Reflection
I Need to See More Plays
I was disappointed with how many plays were nominated that I heard were great and didn’t make time to see. That’s a lesson for next year, when my goal is to come in having seen 90%+ of the nominated shows. I think I hit that target on the musicals this year but not the plays. As a side note, though, some of the celebrity-starring plays can feel really inaccessible, and that does add a layer of challenge. But I literally have a page on this site about finding reasonably-priced tickets, so I think I should be able to figure it out.
And that’s it! It was a great season of theater, as every Tonys-related article makes sure to tell you incessantly. So hopefully the Tony Awards tonight serve as an appropriate celebration of all the incredible productions this year.
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