It’s officially Tony Sunday, and the only awards show that I’m happy is absurdly long starts at 6:30pm ET this evening (with the main televised ceremony kicking off at 8pm on CBS). Loyal readers have already seen the drama of my attempts to predict and then understand the nominations this year, and now the time has come to unveil my predictions for who will actually win all these awards.
I’m a bit sick, so the predictions will be without the usual degree of hard-hitting analysis. We can save that for the post-Tonys debrief that I’ll inevitably write. After discovering that Jesse Green’s New York Times predictions were only about 50% correct last year (granted, he didn’t attempt several categories), I’m nervous about setting an appropriate standard for success this year. I’d like to target getting 75% of the 26 categories correct, but realistically will probably end up closer to the 50% range.
It’s a crowded season, though, so maybe my performance doesn’t matter and what does matter is celebrating all the theater!
The Predictions
Best Play – Stereophonic
Best Musical – The Outsiders
Best Book of a Musical – Shaina Taub for Suffs
Best Original Score – Shaina Taub for Suffs
Best Revival of a Play – Appropriate
Best Revival of a Musical – Merrily We Roll Along
Leading Actor in a Play – Jeremy Strong for An Enemy of the People
Leading Actress in a Play – Sarah Paulson for Appropriate
Leading Actor in a Musical – Jonathan Groff for Merrily We Roll Along
Leading Actress in a Musical – Maryann Plunkett for The Notebook
Featured Actor in a Play – Eli Gelb for Stereophonic
Featured Actress in a Play – Sarah Pidgeon for Stereophonic
Featured Actor in a Musical – Daniel Radcliffe for Merrily We Roll Along
Featured Actress in a Musical – Lindsay Mendez for Merrily We Roll Along
Scenic Design of a Play – dots for Appropriate
Scenic Design of a Musical – David Korins for Here Lies Love
Costume Design of a Play – Dede Ayite for Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Costume Design of a Musical – Tom Scutt for Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Lighting Design of a Play – Jane Cox for Appropriate
Lighting Design of a Musical – Hana S. Kim and Brian MacDevitt for The Outsiders
Sound Design of a Play – Ryan Rumery for Stereophonic
Sound Design of a Musical – Kai Harada for Merrily We Roll Along
Direction of a Play – Daniel Aukin for Stereophonic
Direction of a Musical – Danya Taymor for The Outsiders
Best Choreography – Justin Peck for Illinoise
Best Orchestrations – Adam Blackstone and Tom Kitt for Hell’s Kitchen
Reflections
Things I’m Scared About
- Hell’s Kitchen – not because of the outdated notion that Hell’s Kitchen is an unsafe neighborhood, but because I’m only predicting one win for it and that seems way too conservative given the number of nominations it received. It has a good chance at Best Musical, Leading Actress in a Musical, and many technical categories. But I think they’re all tight races.
- Water for Elephants – Would be disappointing for this show to get seven nominations and walk away with no wins as I’ve predicted. I think it has a chance at Lighting Design for a Musical and Direction for a Musical.
- Purlie Victorious – I absolutely loved Purlie, yet I’m predicting no wins because I think an already-closed play is at an inherent disadvantage. I would be quite happy if Kara Young or Leslie Odom, Jr. won, though.
- The Outsiders – I’m worried I’ve let my love for this production of The Outsiders cloud my judgement, resulting in three predicted wins, including Best Musical and Best Direction of a Musical.
- Stereophonic cannibalization – Stereophonic is the biggest play of the year, and it’s nominated so much in the Featured Actor/Actress in a Play categories (five nominations between the two categories) that there’s a high chance Stereophonic nominees in those categories could split the votes and someone else could win.
Predicted Upsets
I’m predicting a few upsets that I know are relatively unlikely. Some upsets happen every year, so I have to assume that will be the case this year:
- Best Musical – The Hollywood Reporter’s statistical predictions suggest The Outsiders is fourth-most likely to win Best Musical because it didn’t win the equivalent awards from the Drama League, Drama Desk, or Outer Critics Circle. This is the highest-profile category, but I think it could still happen.
- Leading Actress in a Musical – this is probably a tight race between Kelli O’Hara and Maleah Joi Moon, and I picked the third option in Maryann Plunkett. She gave a great performance in The Notebook and that would give the show some love after Joy Woods was snubbed in the nominations.
- Sound Design of a Musical – I probably let a mediocre personal experience at Hell’s Kitchen taint my impression of that show, which is favored to win here from what I can tell. Instead, I’m predicting the design of Merrily, with its beautiful orchestra (Cabaret reference intended) and crystal clear words (despite Sondheim’s proclivity to write an immense number of them), will take home the prize.
- Direction of a Musical – It seems likely Maria Friedman will win this for fixing Merrily, but with five wins predicted for Merrily already I’m hoping the Tony voters will decide to honor the ingenuity of either Danya Taymor (as I predicted) or Jessica Stone on Water for Elephants.
- Best Orchestrations – I chose this as the one win for Hell’s Kitchen, but I legitimately thought the orchestrations were the best part of this show (Shoshana Bean and Maleah Joi Moon were also excellent, for what it’s worth).
That’s all for now. Watch the Tonys to support live theater, and I’ll see you back here sometime soon so we can talk about how it went.
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