Minimum Familiarity: None, I try to explain any requisite terminology as we go.
I’ve been thinking lately about how much I like Hadestown, and it occurred to me that Hadestown may be the last original musical that has run for more than a year or two on Broadway. So I did some poking around (during which I found the excellent Broadway Now and Next website), and decided to reflect on the past several years of Broadway shows. Because it turns out my hunch is close to, but not entirely, correct: there are very few new musicals surviving on Broadway. And the musicals that do survive often draw directly on movies or existing music as their source material, thus blurring the boundary of whether we should consider them truly “original.”
Context
What’s a Season Anyway?
My new favorite website has Broadway opening/closing dates back to the 2017-2018 season, so we’re going to consider five full seasons starting with that one, before looking at the current season, which consists of shows that opened by April 25, 2024.
A quick note on season definitions: Broadway seasons end at the Tony eligibility cut-off for a given year. The cut-off is usually near the end of April ahead of the Tony Awards ceremony in early June. So the current season always runs from the day after the eligibility deadline in April of the prior year through the eligibility deadline in the current year. Hence the season definitions that span two calendar years.
And, as everyone will always do forever, I’d like to caveat that COVID wrecked the 2020-2021 season. As in literally zero shows opened on Broadway between March 5, 2020 (Girl from the North Country) and June 25, 2021 (when Springsteen on Broadway began its second run). And it wasn’t until Six opened in October 2021 that Broadway saw its next new musical.
If you’re following along on the season math, that means the 2020-2021 season literally didn’t exist, since no shows opened between May 2020 and April 2021.
What Does “Original” Even Mean?
With the timelines established, I’d like to introduce a distinction between “New Musicals” and “Original Musicals.” To explain, let’s look at a taxonomy of the categories that Broadway Now and Next includes in their database, plus the sub-categories that I made up:
- New Musical – per Tony Awards guidelines (pages 8-9), a new musical is basically any musical that hasn’t been on Broadway before, but also Gutenberg! doesn’t count apparently.
- Original Musical – I define an original musical as one that is not primarily adapted from an existing music catalog or movie. I do let most adaptations of books, mythology, etc. count as “original” if music was composed for it.
- Adapted Musical – not an Original Musical.
- Musical Revival – basically all musicals that are not new.
- New Play – a play that hasn’t been on Broadway before.
- Play Revival – a play that has been on Broadway before.
- Other – productions in Broadway theaters that are not musicals or plays. These are mostly concerts (Springsteen on Broadway), magic shows (The Illusionists), and some weird edge cases (like Waitress and Beetlejuice resuming their runs post-shutdown).
Clearly the Original/Adapted Musical distinctions are pretty subjective, but let’s roll with them as a lens into the types of musicals on Broadway recently.
The Original Musicals Question
Let’s start with the question I originally wondered: how many original musicals from the last five years are still on Broadway? Let’s start high-level and zoom in to understand the answer.
Per Broadway Now and Next, 187 shows opened on Broadway from the 2017-2018 season through the 2022-2023 season. Of these 187 shows, 56 of them were musicals, and 40 of them were new musicals. Of those 40 new musicals from the past several years, 8 are still running today, and only 5 of them have open-ended runs (meaning they have not announced a closing date).
Those 5 remaining new musicals with open-ended runs, organized by the season they premiered, are:
- 2018-2019
- Hadestown
- 2019-2020
- Moulin Rouge!
- 2021-2022
- Six
- MJ
- 2022-2023
- & Juliet
Exactly 2 of these are what I would consider “original” musicals: Hadestown and Six. I clearly forgot Six in my initial musings that prompted this post. Despite its British origins, Six very much qualifies as “original” by my standards (it certainly wasn’t obvious to me to adapt the six wives of Henry VIII into a pop concert-musical).
The other 3 shows that live on (Moulin Rouge!, MJ, and & Juliet) rely on existing music and, in the case of Moulin Rouge!, an existing film. If I had to sort those three on originality, & Juliet is the most original (it uses existing music, but in an inventive way) and Moulin Rouge! the least (some new arrangements and additional songs, but it just wants to be a newer version of the movie).
Some interesting tidbits about these shows:
- Hadestown and Moulin Rouge! are the only new musicals remaining from their seasons (albeit Moulin Rouge! was in the nightmare 2019-2020 COVID season. MJ and Six would also have opened during that season if the pandemic hadn’t intervened).
- There are no musicals remaining from the 2017-2018 season at all, although Harry Potter and the Cursed Child lives on as a straight play representative of that year.
The Legacy Shows
Just to touch on them quickly, there are exactly 6 shows remaining from before the 2017-2018 season, per our same infallible Broadway Now and Next source. That’s few enough that we can list them (from oldest to newest):
- Chicago
- The Lion King
- Wicked
- The Book of Mormon
- Aladdin
- Hamilton
And that’s it. If we consider 4 of these to be originals (I’m including Chicago even though that was technically a revival, and I’m letting book adaptations count as original), that leaves exactly 6 original musicals on Broadway from before the current season.
How About This Season?
The good news for original musical lovers is that this season is chock full of new musicals, 15 of them to be precise, which is up from 9 the past couple of years. Will one of these break through and join the ranks of artistically and commercially successful great original musicals?
We don’t actually have that many strong candidates if that’s what we’re looking for. Let’s consider this year’s new musicals one by one, ordered by how long I think they’ll last (starting with the ones that will last the shortest).
The Heart of Rock and Roll
Some of the saddest box office numbers I’ve ever seen for a musical. I was always skeptical that there were enough Huey Lewis fans to sustain a Broadway musical, and early signs point to that not being the case.
Lempicka
I wanted this production to blow me away, but with rough reviews and an average paid admission price of $44 the week ending 4/14 (eek), I think Lempicka is not long for this world. It’s a fascinating story and I can’t wait for the soundtrack, though, it’s full of bops.
The Notebook
Clearly this one is an adaptation of a story that has been a book and movie, though the music is a welcome addition. So far the box office hasn’t broken out to the point where it’ll make it beyond a year or two, regardless of whether we deem it an original musical.
Suffs
After a sold out run at the Public Theatre, Suffs is not delivering that hype on Broadway, but it’s still early and neutral-to-positive reviews and a couple Tony wins should help prop it up. It doesn’t look like it’s on track for the Hamilton-like run I’m sure the creators were hoping for though.
One thing I will note on this one, Hamilton parallels aside, is that it is probably tied with Lempicka for what I’d consider the most original musical premiering this season. So it’s not great for my hope for new musicals that I don’t foresee bright futures for Suffs or Lempicka.
Water for Elephants
This is definitely an original musical, adapting the popular book to the stage in an innovative way. It was well-received by critics and if it has reasonable running costs it should be fine at its current box office performance to stick around for a while. This is probably among the top contenders to last at least a few years.
Hell’s Kitchen
I think Alicia Keys and neutral to positive reviews will carry Hell’s Kitchen more than its early box office performance would suggest. I did see this show recently and I don’t really understand why it’s called Hell’s Kitchen since it doesn’t really seem to be about New York, but that’s neither here nor there.
Back to the Future
Not really original despite being new. The box office seems to be doing well enough (most weeks >$1M) that it could make it a year or two, but I don’t see it lasting more than that.
The Outsiders
I’m biased because I really loved this production, but I am bullish on The Outsiders. I think they’ll do something cool at the Tonys and win a few awards, and thousands of middle school teachers will start buying group tickets for their New York trips.
The Great Gatsby
This production gives me Sweeney Todd vibes, and not just because it involves murder! I think a lot of the interest in this show depends on Jeremy Jordan and Eva Noblezada in the starring roles. Their performances are incredible and worth seeing on their own, and, like The Outsiders, pretty much everyone read the book in high school. I think the name recognition and first-mover Great Gatsby adaptation advantage can get this show to run a couple of years with appropriate replacement stunt casting.
I do recognize it’s a hot take that Gatsby will last the longest of the shows this season, but I already took a swing on Gatsby in my Tony nomination predictions, so why not continue the trend?
This Season’s (Already Populated) Graveyard
One unfortunate element of this season is that five musicals that opened within it have already closed. Producers of one of those (Days of Wine and Roses) positioned it as a limited run to begin with, although they still cut that limited run even shorter than planned. Here are the five shows that won’t even be around to benefit from a potential Tony bump in June:
- Once Upon a One More Time
- Here Lies Love
- Harmony
- How to Dance in Ohio
- Days of Wine and Roses
This list contains some genuinely innovative titles: Here Lies Love offered a fully immersive experience, Harmony presented lost history really effectively, and How to Dance in Ohio represented a new frontier for representation on Broadway. It’s a shame we’ve already lost 1/3 of the 2023-2024 new musical field.
And if nothing else speaks to the uncertain nature of Broadway today, the Best Musical winner from last year, Kimberly Akimbo, closes the day I’m posting this article (4/28/24), less than a year after taking home theater’s top prize.
The State of Broadway
I struggled to identify any shows from this season (or any recent seasons) that seem set up for a long run. There are many arguments for why any of these shows will not take off, and outside chances that any of them could. I do think that the list of new musicals is certainly full of variety, and coupled with very commercial revivals of The Who’s Tommy, The Wiz, and, oh yeah, Cabaret (pushing new frontiers of ticket prices and run times), this is the strongest season in years. And I will try my darndest to see them all and support the somewhat unprecedented influx of openings in March and April this year.
Five Years from Now
But what will still be left five years from now? I predict that no shows that opened this year will be running by then. And as for those two shows still hanging on from the past five years? As much as I love the show, I don’t think Hadestown goes the distance. I believe in Six, though, which will cycle incredible vocalists through for its rabid repeat-viewing fanbase for years to come. And I’ll keep holding out hope that the next big thing in musical theater is right around the corner. I sure hope it is, or producers will have a harder and harder time justifying the massive investment that a Broadway musical represents.
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